Hierarchical Scheduling of Complex Dynamic Supply Chain

Green manufacturing (especially the right production scale) and optimization of logistics transportation (especially logistics transportation to ensure economic benefits) have become challenging issues. This paper focuses on production planning and scheduling of dynamic supply chain via H∞control scheme. This paper considers the production scale control and resource scheduling optimization of complex dynamic supply chain under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.Firstly, the information of green manufacturing production is collected, and a new mathematical model of complex dynamic supply chain including multi-level distributor/retailer, multi-delay inventory and multi-lead time is established. Secondly, the optimal resource scheduling scheme is designed based on the principle of H∞cybernetics, which is called the hierarchical scheduling of complex dynamic supply chain in this paper. Finally, a numerical example shows the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed scheme. Through this model, the production of manufacturers, the inventory of manufacturers and distributors, and the order quantity of distributors can be arranged in advance, which improves the robustness of the closed-loop dynamic supply chain.

Differences in the clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients in the epicenter and peripheral areas of the pandemic from China: a retrospective, large-sample, comparative analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is limited information on the difference in epidemiology, clinical characteristics and outcomes of the initial outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan (the epicenter) and Sichuan (the peripheral area) in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study was conducted to investigate the differences in the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 between the epicenter and peripheral areas of pandemic and thereby generate information that would be potentially helpful in formulating clinical practice recommendations to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: The Sichuan & Wuhan Collaboration Research Group for COVID-19 established two retrospective cohorts that separately reflect the epicenter and peripheral area during the early pandemic. The epidemiology, clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients in the two groups were compared. Multivariate regression analyses were used to estimate the adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with regard to the outcomes. RESULTS: The Wuhan (epicenter) cohort included 710 randomly selected patients, and the peripheral (Sichuan) cohort included 474 consecutive patients. A higher proportion of patients from the periphery had upper airway symptoms, whereas a lower proportion of patients in the epicenter had lower airway symptoms and comorbidities. Patients in the epicenter had a higher risk of death (aOR=7.64), intensive care unit (ICU) admission (aOR=1.66), delayed time from illness onset to hospital and ICU admission (aOR=6.29 and aOR=8.03, respectively), and prolonged duration of viral shedding (aOR=1.64). CONCLUSIONS: The worse outcomes in the epicenter could be explained by the prolonged time from illness onset to hospital and ICU admission. This could potentially have been associated with elevated systemic inflammation secondary to organ dysfunction and prolonged duration of virus shedding independent of age and comorbidities. Thus, early supportive care could achieve better clinical outcomes.

Efficacy of early prone or lateral positioning in patients with severe COVID-19: a single-center prospective cohort.

Background: Position intervention has been shown to improve oxygenation, but its role in non-invasively ventilated patients with severe COVID-19 has not been assessed. The objective of this study was to investigate the efficacy of early position intervention on non-invasively ventilated patients with severe COVID-19. Methods: This was a single-center, prospective observational study in consecutive patients with severe COVID-19 managed in a provisional ICU at Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from 31 January to 15 February 2020. Patients with chest CT showing exudation or consolidation in bilateral peripheral and posterior parts of the lungs were included. Early position intervention (prone or lateral) was commenced for > 4 hours daily for 10 days in these patients, while others received standard care. Results: The baseline parameters were comparable between the position intervention group (n = 17) and the standard care group (n = 35). Position intervention was well-tolerated and increased cumulative adjusted mean difference of SpO2/FiO2 (409, 95% CI 86 to 733) and ROX index (26, 95% CI 9 to 43) with decreased Borg scale (-9, 95% CI -15 to -3) during the first 7 days. It also facilitated absorption of lung lesions and reduced the proportion of patients with high National Early Warning Score 2 (≥ 7) on days 7 and 14, with a trend toward faster clinical improvement. Virus shedding and length of hospital stay were comparable between the two groups. Conclusions: This study provides the first evidence for improved oxygenation and lung lesion absorption using early position intervention in non-invasively ventilated patients with severe COVID-19, and warrants further randomized trials.

Nomogram for Predicting COVID-19 Disease Progression Based on Single-Center Data: Observational Study and Model Development.

BACKGROUND: In late December 2019, a pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan and spread worldwide rapidly. Currently, no specific medicine is available to treat infection with COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to summarize the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 175 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection who were hospitalized in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 1 to January 31, 2020, and to establish a tool to identify potential critical patients with COVID-19 and help clinical physicians prevent progression of this disease. METHODS: In this retrospective study, clinical characteristics of 175 confirmed COVID-19 cases were collected and analyzed. Univariate analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were used to select variables. Multivariate analysis was applied to identify independent risk factors in COVID-19 progression. We established a nomogram to evaluate the probability of progression of the condition of a patient with COVID-19 to severe within three weeks of disease onset. The nomogram was verified using calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: A total of 18 variables were considered to be risk factors after the univariate regression analysis of the laboratory parameters (P<.05), and LASSO regression analysis screened out 10 risk factors for further study. The six independent risk factors revealed by multivariate Cox regression were age (OR 1.035, 95% CI 1.017-1.054; P<.001), CK level (OR 1.002, 95% CI 1.0003-1.0039; P=.02), CD4 count (OR 0.995, 95% CI 0.992-0.998; P=.002), CD8 % (OR 1.007, 95% CI 1.004-1.012, P<.001), CD8 count (OR 0.881, 95% CI 0.835-0.931; P<.001), and C3 count (OR 6.93, 95% CI 1.945-24.691; P=.003). The areas under the curve of the prediction model for 0.5-week, 1-week, 2-week and 3-week nonsevere probability were 0.721, 0.742, 0.87, and 0.832, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the model had good prediction ability within three weeks of disease onset. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents a predictive nomogram of critical patients with COVID-19 based on LASSO and Cox regression analysis. Clinical use of the nomogram may enable timely detection of potential critical patients with COVID-19 and instruct clinicians to administer early intervention to these patients to prevent the disease from worsening.

Comparison of clinical characteristics of COVID-19 between elderly patients and young patients: a study based on a 28-day follow-up.

The number of corona virus disease 2019 cases is increasing rapidly. However, the comparison of clinical characteristics between patients ≥ 70 and those < 70 has not been implemented yet. To achieve that, we collected clinical data of consecutive 222 patients in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University diagnosed between January 13, 2020 and February 4, 2020. We divided them into an under-70 group and an over-70 group according to their ages, comparing their clinical characteristics. Meanwhile, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify the prognostic factors. Among the patients enrolled, 37 (16.67%) were 70 or older and 185 (83.33%) were younger than 70. Higher proportions of dyspnoea, expectoration, chronic cardiovascular disease, diabetes, organ complications, severe-to-critical cases, a higher death rate, a longer hospital stay and decreased immune status were observed in the over-70 group patients compared with their younger counterparts. The risk factors for death included dyspnoea, muscle ache, elevated myocardial enzymes, elevated C3 in over-70 patients and dyspnoea, pharyngalgia, chronic cardiac disease, increased C-reactive protein, IgA, decreased platelets in under-70 patients. Overall, our research compared the clinical characteristics of the two populations with different immune status and illustrated differentiated risk factors for death in them.

Analysis of the clinical characteristics of 77 COVID-19 deaths.

The COVID-19 outbreak is becoming a public health emergency. Data are limited on the clinical characteristics and causes of death. A retrospective analysis of COVID-19 deaths were performed for patients' clinical characteristics, laboratory results, and causes of death. In total, 56 patients (72.7%) of the decedents (male-female ratio 51:26, mean age 71 ± 13, mean survival time 17.4 ± 8.4 days) had comorbidities. Acute respiratory failure (ARF) and sepsis were the main causes of death. Increases in C-reactive protein (CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), D-dimer and lactic acid and decreases in lymphocytes were common laboratory results. Intergroup analysis showed that (1) most female decedents had cough and diabetes. (2) The proportion of young- and middle-aged deaths was higher than elderly deaths for males, while elderly decedents were more prone to myocardial injury and elevated CRP. (3) CRP and LDH increased and cluster of differentiation (CD) 4+ and CD8+ cells decreased significantly in patients with hypertension. The majority of COVID-19 decedents are male, especially elderly people with comorbidities. The main causes of death are ARF and sepsis. Most female decedents have cough and diabetes. Myocardial injury is common in elderly decedents. Patients with hypertension are prone to an increased inflammatory index, tissue hypoxia and cellular immune injury.

The clinical course and its correlated immune status in COVID-19 pneumonia.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the clinical course and its dynamic features of immune status in COVID-19 patients and find predictors correlated with severity and prognosis of COVID-19. METHODS: The electronic medical records of 204 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia confirmed by nucleic acid testing were retrospectively collected and analyzed. RESULTS: All patients were divided into severe (69) and non-severe group (135). Lymphocyte subsets count, including CD3+ T cell, CD4+ T cell, CD8+ T cell, B cell (CD19+) and NK cell (CD16+ 56+), were significantly lower in severe group (P＜0.001). The dynamic levels of T lymphocyte in severe group were significantly lower from disease onset, but in the improved subgroup the value of T lymphocyte began to increase after about 15-day treatment and finally returned to the normal level. The cut-off value of the counts of CD3+ (576), CD4+ (391) and CD8+ (214) T cell were calculated and indicated significantly high sensitivity and specificity for severity of COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Our results shown that the decrease of CD3+, CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocyte correlated with the course of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, especially in severe cases. The level of T lymphocyte could be used as an indicator for prediction of severity and prognosis of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. The application of glucocorticoid should be cautious in severe cases.

CT imaging and clinical course of asymptomatic cases with COVID-19 pneumonia at admission in Wuhan, China.

PURPOSE: Aimed to characterize the CT imaging and clinical course of asymptomatic cases with COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: Asymptomatic cases with COVID-19 pneumonia confirmed by SARS-COV-2 nucleic acid testing in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University were retrospectively enrolled. The characteristics of CT imaging and clinical feature were collected and analyzed. RESULTS: 58 asymptomatic cases with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to our hospital between Jan 1, 2020 and Feb 23, 2020 were enrolled. All patients had history of exposure to SARS-CoV-2. On admission, patients had no symptoms and laboratory findings were normal. The predominant feature of CT findings in this cohort was ground glass opacity (GGO) (55, 94.8%) with peripheral (44, 75.9%) distribution, unilateral location (34, 58.6%) and mostly involving one or two lobes (38, 65.5%), often accompanied by characteristic signs. After short-term follow-up, 16 patients (27.6%) presented symptoms with lower lymphocyte count and higher CRP, mainly including fever, cough and fatigue. The evolution of lesions on CT imaging were observed in 10 patients (17.2%). The average days of hospitalization was19.80±10.82 days, and was significantly longer in progression patients (28.60±7.55 day). CONCLUSION: CT imaging of asymptomatic cases with COVID-19 pneumonia has definite characteristics. Since asymptomatic infections as "covert transmitter", and some patients can progress rapidly in the short term. It is essential to pay attention to the surveillance of asymptomatic patients with COVID-19. CT scan has great value in screening and detecting patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, especially in the highly suspicious, asymptomatic cases with negative nucleic acid testing.